Safety first?

In 2013, the Steelers' defense allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more. Twelve! Among the 10 running plays that went for 15 yards or more, five popped for 48 yards or more. The 10 running plays of 15 yards or more averaged a whopping 40.9 yards per carry.*

With a stunning total of 46 passing plays of 20 yards or more allowed and the 10 runs of 15 yards or more allowed (including five for 48+), something was clearly amiss at each level of the defense: the front end, the linebackers, and the back end. There were repeated glaring breakdowns at all three levels.

The safeties are the proverbial last line of defense, and it was clear to any casual observer that something was lacking at the safety position last year.  Ryan Clark's gone, and new addition Mike Mitchell takes his place.

All three levels were addressed in the off-season to an extent, with the additions of defensive lineman Cam Thomas, linebacker Arthur Moats, and safety Mike Mitchell.

Will Mike Mitchell be enough?
Mitchell is expected to be the biggest contributor, but will he be enough at safety? Most people seem to believe the Steelers are set at safety for this year, with Mitchell, Troy Polamalu, Shamarko Thomas and veteran Will Allen.

Yeah, maybe, but let's keep in mind that the overall defensive schemes are shifting: We are likely to see much less of the base 3-4-4 set (with two safeties on the field) and many more mixed sets comprised of five and six and even seven defensive backs.

In today's NFL, cover prowess at safety is as important as hitting ability. As valuable as Kam Chancellor, a big hitter, is to Seattle's defense, Earl Thomas's anticipation, range and ability to cover is just as important, if not more so.

With that in mind, it's not far-fetched to think the Steelers may address safety at some point in the draft. Whether that makes sense in the first round (Calvin Pryor or Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix), in the second (Deone Buchanon; Jimmy Ward) or later on will have to be determined on draft day.

Cover Safety vs. Cover Corner
When No. 15 comes up, if either Calvin Pryor or Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is on the board along with one of the top corners (Darqueze Dennard, Justin Gilbert, Kyle Fuller), don't be too surprised if the Steelers go with the safety instead of the corner. And we all know how desperately the Steelers need a corner ... and a wide receiver (Odell Beckham, Jr.), and a rush linebacker (Anthony Barr), and an offensive tackle (Zack Martin), and help on the defensive line (Louis Nix), and tight end, etc. Take your pick.

If, however, one of the top safeties available is better than any of the corners available at No. 15, the Steelers should take him. Of the two safeties generally considered the best in the draft, Joey Porter's Pit Bulls like Pryor better than Clinton-Dix.

Again though, the Steelers have many needs, including corner; especially corner. Whether the team's braintrust considers a potentially great cover safety to be more valuable than a potentially very good cover corner -- or any other position -- well, it should be interesting to see how it shakes out in 10 days.

*Hat tip to Dave Bryan of Steelers Depot for these stats, 

and for highlighting the alarming number of "double 

explosive" plays allowed during 2013.

Super Funday Groundhog Day

John Stallworth, Super Bowl X

"If the Super Bowl is the ultimate game, why do they play it every year?"
-- Duane Thomas, running back, Dallas Cowboys, 1972


Say what you will about Peyton Manning, he know where he wants to throw the ball. Unlike Ben Roethlisberger, Manning is rarely accused of holding onto the ball too long.

As he long as he knows his receivers are going to be where he can count on them to be, Manning will get the ball to them. Decisively, and with dispatch.

If Seattle's very fine corners can disrupt Denver's very fine wide receivers from getting into their routes, however, Manning may hesitate just long enough to double-clutch. When he's forced to improvise, he is not at his best (unlike Ben Roethisberger). Manning likes everything to be just so. Perfect.

The one flaw in this equation, for Seattle, is they may not have a slot corner who matches up well with Wes Welker. Or that beast of a tight end, Julius Thomas (6'5", 250), who may draw the attention of Seattle's excellent, hard-hitting safety Kam Chancellor (6'3", 232).

Maybe Seattle's other excellent safety, Earl Thomas, gets Welker; still not a good matchup for Seattle.

For Seattle, too, Richard Sherman (as good as he is, and he will be the first to tell you that), Denver has two wideouts who match up well physically with the 6'3" cornerback. Both Demaryius Thomas (6'3", 229; 2013 stats: 92 receptions; 1,430 yards and 14 TDs) and Eric Decker (6'3", 214; 2013 stats: 87 receptions, 1,288 yards and 11 TDs ) are tall, fast and physical.

It should be interesting.

As to another angle for tonight's game, each team's unique home field advantage is nullified. The Broncos will presumably miss the mile-high altitude advantage; the Seahawks will presumably miss the 12th man crowd noise. If the weather is as predicted, about 40 with rain, it will feel like a home game for the Seahawks.

Both cities are incredible; both sets of fans are passionate. Peyton Manning is one for three in Super Bowls. No Seahwaks player has appeared in a Super Bowl.

Worthless prediction #89: Broncos win by 17. The Seahawks aren't built to play from behind.  If Denver jumps out to a quick lead and makes this a shootout, look out Loretta.