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| Gorilla at Erie Zoo |
Many prognosticators point to linebacker as a possibility, but we'd
be a bit surprised if the Steelers draft a linebacker in the first round this
year. They certainly need one or two new impact
linebackers, and it's entirely possible they will really need somebody to
step in for James Harrison, who may be released as a salary cap casualty, although the Post-Gazette's Ed Bouchette claims the coaching staff wants him back.
Although Jason Worilds
made some progress last season, we’re not convinced he's the real deal. As a second-round draft pick entering his fourth season, this will be his make-or-break year. Chris Carter hasn't shown much, and Stephenson
Sylvester remains a question mark. We have slightly higher hopes
for him than Carter, who looks like he's never adjusted to playing linebacker in the 3-4 defense (instead of the passing-rushing defensive end role he played in college).
Keep in mind, though, the Steelers gave Harrison and predecessors
like Jason Gildon a few years, more
or less, on the sidelines and special teams before they stepped in. The
Steelers apparently intend to have Worilds move in as the starter to succeed
Harrrison.
Many people say it might make sense for the Steelers to flip-flop Lamarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons, and it might make sense, but knowing the
Steelers, Joey Porter’s Pit Bulls don't think that's going to happen.
Frankly, it’s a fair question to wonder whether we can count on
Woodley to play 8-10 games a year, ever. He seems to have chronic hamstring
problems. Still, Woodley just looks like an inside
linebacker, and Timmons looks like he should be covering the big, fast tight
ends coming off the line these days. Maybe that's the role the Steelers see for
Sylvester. Still, they need somebody to rush the passer, and that's an enormous
need, so Woodley stays on the outside.
Also of concern: Larry
Foote isn't getting any younger. He's always been a bedrock in the linebacker
corps, steady, but never great. He’s never been a devastating thumper; never
particularly disruptive; and his play slipped noticeably in the second half of
last season. The Steelers apparently envision Sean Spence taking over for Foote after 2013, but Joey Porter’s Pit
Bulls can’t help but wonder if Spence is too small -– and nobody has seen him in
a regular-season game.
Free Agency or a Later Draft Pick?
It would be interesting if the Steelers were to sign Baltimore's Dannell Ellerbe out of free agency, but
that's going to happen. Joe Flacco's
contract situation really complicates things for the Ravens,
but we expect Baltimore will let pass-rushing linebacker Paul Kruger walk and try to keep Ellerbe to maintain continuity at
inside linebacker in the wake of Ray Lewis's departure. At this point,
Baltimore can't afford to sign Kruger (13.5 sacks), and neither can Pittsburgh.
In the draft, we believe the Steelers will add to the linebacking corps after the first round by drafting, say, Jon Major of Colorado. For some reason this guy hasn't been mentioned as anything but a
mid-round selection, but his productivity was off the charts for a bad Buffaloes team, and his instincts appear to be superb. Jon Major to the Steelers in the second round? Too high? Maybe; maybe not. We haven't seen him much, but he reminds us a bit of Sean Lee.
By our calculations, the Steelers will not pick a linebacker a LB in the first round. We’ve already discussed in previous editions of this series why we don't
see the Steelers drafting an offensive lineman (too much money tied up in the four high draft
choices on the line already) and running back (not enough value for a first-rounder).
Where does that leave us? Wide receiver? Not gonna happen. The Steelers
believe they can get one in later rounds, like they did with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. If, however, Oregon State receiver Markus Wheaton lasts until the Steelers' pick in the second round, grab him.
Wheaton sounds every bit as good, if not
better, than the more highly touted wide receivers like Keenan Allen (Cal) and
the handful of others mentioned in the top tier of receivers. He looks
like he is slotted to go in the second round, but probably before the Steelers'
pick at No. 17 in Round 2.
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| Big Daddy Lipscomb, 1961 |
Defensive Line or Secondary?
By our calculations, then, that leaves two broad positional areas
where the Steelers are most likely to invest their first-round selection: DL
and the secondary. On the DL, they already have two first rounders in defensive
ends Ziggy Hood and Cameron Heyward.
To digress for a second, the Post-Gazette’s
Ed Bouchette makes an interesting
suggestion, which is to switch defensive end Ziggy Hood and nose tackle Steve McClendon, and that sounds like a
good idea. We also don't think it's going to happen.
With two of the last four No. 1 draft picks having gone to the
defensive line, it‘s a long shot for the Steelers to draft for the DL in the
first round this year. Again, too much payroll tied up in one positional
category, and it’s too soon to let go of either Hood or Heyward.
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| Hall of Famer Jack Butler |
Safety or Corner?
That brings us to the secondary: Safety or cornerback? The
Steelers will be counting on Troy Polamalu
to return to form, and Ryan Clark
was probably their defensive MVP last year. Safety is a near-future need.
Texas's Sonny Vaccaro is a guy who
some people project to the Steelers at No. 17. Joey Porter’s Pit Bulls don't
buy it.
That brings us back to cornerback, where the Steelers have a gaping hole
with the departure of Keenan Lewis. Ike Taylor (just like Brett Keisel and
Larry Foote) isn't getting any younger, and Curtis Brown has been a big disappointment,
although he probably will get one more season to prove he belongs (much like
Lewis got last year).
We believe the Steelers would rather keep Cortez Allen at the
slot-corner, but it's entirely possible they intend for him to start in place
of Lewis. That still leaves them extremely thin at corner. If either
Taylor or Allen go down with an injury, then we're left with the likes of Josh
Victorian and Curtis Brown starting, and everybody saw how that worked out for
the Steelers vs. San Diego and Dallas.
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| Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau |
So, all of that brings us squarely back to one of
the first three players who caught our attention when we first started looking closely
at possible draft picks after the season: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State.
There might be
one other corner worthy of No. 17 on the board at that point, but that's the
guy we’d think the Steelers might give a very, very close look at the Combine.
You can never have too many corners, and good ones are always at a
premium. With passing games the way they are these days, the best corners will
go off the board early on April 24.
It’s early, but it’s later than you think.
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